NFL hot seat rankings: Mike McCarthy, Nick Sirianni among coaches already on notice

Time was, an NFL head coach might find his fanny getting warm if he was coming to the end of his fourth year and hadn’t yet guided his program into the postseason. Alas, stability and patience in a league where one-year turnarounds are hardly foreign – congratulations once more, Houston Texans – are long gone.

Nowadays, you might not survive a poor start to your inaugural campaign – looking at you, Nathaniel Hackett and Frank Reich. No playoffs after three years? See ya. Consistent postseason presence but underwhelming results? Meh. Even deeply rooted (and legendary) former Super Bowl architects like Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll headed for the door after disappointing 2023 campaigns.

"That's part of the business of the National Football League,” Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy, who hasn’t managed to end Dallas’ championship drought despite winning 12 games each of the past three seasons, said recently. “We're excited and energized by this opportunity that's in front of us.

"The only thing we've been guaranteed is 17 games."

If that, Mike.

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Yet coaches are guaranteed that monitoring hot seats is now a year-round endeavor … and, yes, seven of them – roughly the number of HCs replaced annually – appear to enter 2024 under rising temperatures, these chairs ranked lukewarm to scalding:

7. Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears

Prior to 2024, the last two quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall, the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence and Panthers’ Bryce Young, saw their coaches canned before their rookie years wrapped – and, yes, the circumstances were quite extenuating, especially given the Urban Meyer fiasco in Jacksonville in 2021. There had been speculation regarding Eberflus’ footing prior to the arrival of presumed savior Caleb Williams this spring. And while the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner appears to have all the supporting elements a rookie quarterback could possibly want, if his maiden voyage resembles anything close to what Young experienced last year, good bet this organization – like Carolina – will move quickly to remediate the situation in order to elevate and safeguard Williams. And that could well mean bringing in a head man who specializes on the offensive side, which Eberflus does not.

6. Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills

More a low simmer given he’s lorded over four consecutive AFC East crowns and five straight playoff appearances. Yet the Bills have only advanced beyond the divisional round once in McDermott’s seven seasons, and he took over the play calling on the defensive side in 2023 while changing offensive coordinators at midseason. While salary cap-necessitated roster adjustments might temper expectations this season, the buck’s going to land on McDermott’s desk at some point if this Lombardi-starved franchise can’t break though soon while QB Josh Allen is still in his prime.

5. Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars

"For us winning – winning now – is an expectation," owner Shad Khan said in July, following an offseason when he opened the club's coffers wide. "You want to be in the playoffs every year." Take note, Coach. Pederson went 9-8 in 2022, and his team closed with a purpose to win the AFC South. Then he went 9-8 in 2023 ... thanks to a 1-5 finish, and the Jags were playoff no-shows. Might also be worth noting that the only time Pederson has won more than nine games in the regular season was when he led the 2017 Eagles to victory in Super Bowl 52. He might not quite have a Lombardi decree, but Pederson would probably be wise to heed Khan – though, a year after it appeared like Jacksonville might put a chokehold on this division, things are definitely up for grabs with C.J. Stroud’s Texans and Anthony Richardson’s Colts showing it’s going to be hotly contested for some time.

4. Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints

Recycled after an unsuccessful tenure in Oakland ended a decade ago, he now owns a 24-46 career mark with nary a playoff appearance as a head coach. And while Allen’s defense has outpaced the offense in the years since QB Drew Brees’ retirement, if he doesn’t get this organization a successful reset holistically, hard to imagine Allen will enjoy another Mardi Gras as a local.

3. Robert Saleh, New York Jets

After stratospheric expectations in 2023, he and GM Joe Douglas got one more mulligan after the team’s season was scuttled four snaps in by QB Aaron Rodgers’ torn Achilles. Honestly, Saleh probably doesn’t get enough credit, notching seven wins each of the past two seasons and lording over the league’s second-ranked defense during that span – all despite the most consistently miserable quarterback play in the NFL. But that’s pretty clearly not going to suffice now. “We have all this talent, and we have to deploy talent properly. … This is it. This is the time to go. We’ve got to produce this year,” owner Woody Johnson said February during Super Bowl week. “We have to do a lot better than seven (victories), definitely.” The Jets are unquestionably loaded, perhaps even more so than in 2023, according to Rodgers, after another active offseason from Douglas. But it's time for production to meet or exceed potential if Saleh wants to stick around for 2025.

2. Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles

As good an example as any of the tenuous nature of the coaching profession, he’s 36-20 in three seasons – all of them concluding in the playoffs, including a near miss in Super Bowl 57. But Sirianni – admittedly in his case – and the staff may have been the most underwhelming components of a 2023 squad that got off to a 10-1 start … but only won once thereafter. Entering 2024, Sirianni has his third set of coordinators since the start of the 2022 campaign – though OC Kellen Moore and DC Vic Fangio are more experienced than last year’s duo – and lost two of the locker room leaders he openly leaned on, C Jason Kelce and DT Fletcher Cox, to retirement.

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With DE Brandon Graham announcing he’ll head into the sunset next year, Sirianni may have to exert tighter control on the reins while younger players like QB Jalen Hurts and WR A.J. Brown try to fill the leadership void – which they evidently didn't do in 2023, occasionally freelancing to Philadelphia's detriment. Sirianni and Hurts must also prove their professional marriage is workable, a recent ESPN article reporting their relationship was “fractured” by the end of last season. Though this group may be in heavy transition emotionally, it can’t afford to underachieve from a talent perspective again – especially with RB Saquon Barkley, DE Bryce Huff, WR Jahan Dotson and some impressive rookies onboarding. A third one-and-done postseason in a four-year span will hardly be a selling point for Sirianni.

1. Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

The last time we saw him try to navigate a meaningful contest, his team was getting its doors blown off by the Packers in a wild-card defeat at AT&T Stadium – thus ending an 18-game winning streak at home for “America’s Team” while marking a third consecutive season with a bitterly disappointing ouster in the playoffs. Given the surprisingly convincing loss to the young, inexperienced Pack, not to mention Belichick’s availability, McCarthy’s return for a fifth season – currently the last one on his contract – in Big D hardly seemed inevitable.

But he’s back, albeit with a team that’s largely been handcuffed by salary cap constraints and also wondering if QB Dak Prescott will return himself next year – yet still carrying owner Jerry Jones' constantly repeated “all in” mantra as it attempts to become the first squad to win consecutive NFC East crowns in 20 years ... while also ending Dallas’ nearly three-decade absence from Super Sunday. While Jones hasn’t issued a mandate, hard to envision a lame duck like McCarthy returning to his post in 2025 without collecting a playoff win this season. At the very minimum.

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.